Saturday, May 23, 2015


Does the Vote in Ireland Matter Here?

I think it does.

By an overwhelming landslide, 62% to 38%, Ireland, over the objection of the Catholic Church, approved same-sex marriage.

Why should that matter here in the US? Well, we have six Catholic Supreme Court Justices and three Jewish Justices. The three Jewish Justices are pretty safe votes for marriage equality. Justices Scalia and Thomas are pretty safely votes against.

The play ground is in between … Justice Kennedy, long assumed to be the “swing vote,” given his major contributions to gay rights, in Romer, Lawrence and Windsor, can only be assured of his place in history on the Court if gay marriage is vindicated now.

Chief Justice Roberts, who, most of all, I suspect, doesn't want to be known as the Roger B. Taney of todays' court, must surely see the handwritting on history's wall after the Irish vote.

The question I now see is whether it will be a 6-3 or 7-2 decision. Will Alito choose history or ideology?

Only time will tell.

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